ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACT OF CLIMATIC VARIATION ON THE PRODUCTION OF SOME MAJOR ROOT CROPS IN NIGERIA: A CO-INTEGRATION APPROACH

Abstract

This study assessed the impact of variations in climate on the production of root and tuber crops in Nigeria from 1975 to 2013. Secondary time series data obtained from Food and Agriculture Organization statistics (FAOSTAT) and Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) were used for the study. The data were analyzed using some econometric tools such as Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test, Johansen Test and Vector Error Correction (VEC) Estimates. The ADF test revealed that relative humidity, rainfall and temperature and agricultural output were stationary after differencing at level 1 thus showing that the variables had relationship. The results of the Johansen co-integrated test revealed that there is one co-integrating equation at 5% level of probability showing a co-integrating
relationship between root and tuber crops production output and the climatic variables. The Vector Error Correction Estimates indicated that none of the climatic variables was significant to root and tuber crops production on the short run. However, rainfall and temperature were positively significant at 5% level of probability on the long run indicating that variation in climate especially rainfall affected root and tuber crops production and output in Nigeria. It was therefore recommended that some measures which could help to ensure adequate water supply such as e.g. irrigation, drought resistant/tolerant crops varieties among others should be put in place by the government.